Year-to-Date Performance: +119.74% See disclaimer.

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    ***Current YTD Returns: 159.23%

    Welcome to our Daily Wrap. Carnivore is an old school trading desk operation. We are not politically correct. We don’t take in people’s money. We only manage our own. We’re not trying to sell you anything. Except maybe a path to your own True Freedom. With our model portfolio below, you can see what we are all about.

    Month Start Value End Value Net Gain/Loss % Gain/Loss MoM YTD Gain/Loss
    January$250,000$278,432$28,43211.37%11.37%
    February$278,432$335,651$57,21920.55%34.26%
    March$335,651$378,228$42,57712.68%51.29%
    April$378,228$380,738$2,5100.66%52.30%
    May$380,738$450,289$69,55118.27%80.12%
    June$450,289$544,735$94,44620.97%117.89%
    July$544,735$692,012$147,27727.04%176.80%
    August$692,012$475,000-$217,012-31.36%90.00%
    September$475,000$503,850$28,8506.07%101.54%
    October$503,850$616,436$112,58622.35%146.57%
    November$616,436$1,155,875$539,43987.51%362.35%
    December$1,155,875$1,600,423$444,54838.46%540.17%

    Market Overview

    Market Headlines

    Markets experienced significant volatility today, with the Dow Jones initially surging by 400 points and then retracting to around +250 points before bouncing back. The NASDAQ was even more tumultuous. Amidst this turbulence, our buy choice for the day was VSAT, which proved profitable as we capitalized on the market's ups and downs. Given its overall upward trend, we adopted a strategy of buying on dips and selling on spikes, executing this maneuver three times today. We decided to retain 10,000 shares in the swing trade for tomorrow.

     

    Despite the markets being up across the board, the 10-year rate was on the rise, leading many to anticipate a pause by the Fed. Consequently, we refrained from shorting in this market. Currently, we find ourselves in a short-term correction phase with the market trending downwards. In such scenarios, we seek opportunities to profit using inverse ETFs. For example, if we believe banks will decline, we employ "FAZ," while for semiconductor downturns, we use "SOXS." We resort to "SDOW" for Dow Jones declines, "SQQQ" for NASDAQ drops, and "SPXU" for S&P 500 downturns.

     

    In other news, the Texas Senate has, for the third time, passed a state law criminalizing illegal crossings into Texas from foreign nations, though it has not previously passed the Texas House. Additionally, there are ongoing efforts by some elite leftists to cancel Twitter/X, especially since Elon Musk's ownership. Australia, increasingly leaning left, has fined X, and the EU has issued a worrisome warning concerning "disinformation." These developments underscore a broader trend of supply shortages and strong demand in the market. Our indicators suggest unusual scarcities in products like quality baby formula, Lay's potato chips, and other once-ubiquitous items. This shift towards supply shortages, rather than a lack of demand, is likely to contribute to continued inflationary pressures.

    Index Performance

    3

    −30

    points today

    2

    +160

    points today

    Sector Performance

    Technology

    Tech is struggling but we think eventually the market will have to get back to TechLand.

    Energy

    Oil and gas are currently doing

    OK.

     

    Industrials

    No current updates.

     

     

    Materials

    No current updates.

     

    Real Estate

    No current updates.

     

    Health Care

    No current updates.

     

    Financials

    No current updates.

     

    Communications

    No current updates.

     

    Utilities

    No current updates.

     

    Consumer Discretionary

    No current updates.

     

    Consumer Staples

    No current updates.

     

    Heat Map

    Portfolio Overview

    Stock Performance

    Symbol Name Entry Date Entry PX Current PX %Gain/Loss Target 1 Date Target 2 Date Stop
    DUOLDuolingo9/27/2023$153.78$175.7014.25%$165.00ST$179.0011/19/2023$162.00
    MUSAMurphy USA9/18/2023$337.89$361.717.05%$350.00ST375N/A$339.00
    CLSCelestica10/4/2023$24.48$26.839.60%$30.0012/1/2023N/AN/A$24.99
    PETQPetIQ10/6/2023$21.25$22.385.32%$24.0312/3/2023$26.262/1/2024$19.95
    NUGTGold Miners 2x ETF9/21/2023$27.54$28.774.47%$32.00ST$33.00ST$20.00
    PLTRPalantir10/9/2023$17.23$17.994.41%$19.95ST$22.0012/31/2023$16.66
    TEAMAtlassian10/10/2023$199.75$203.882.07%$211.00ST$229.0012/31/2023$196.75
    KTOSKratos Defense10/10/2023$16.89$17.553.91%$18.00ST$22.0012/31/2023$16.22
    QLYSQualys10/9/2023$161.10$162.751.02%$167.00ST$179.0012/31/2023N/A
    CDNSCadence Design10/10/2023248.5$252.931.78%$255.00ST$279.0012/31/2023$247.00
    OKTAOKTA, Inc10/10/202384.9$86.982.45%$98.00ST$150.007/31/2024$81.00
    UECUranium Energy Corp10/6/2023$5.40$5.15-4.63%$6.20STN/AN/A$5.15

    Portfolio Perfomance

    Symbol Name # of shares Entry PX Total Cost Current PX Total Value % Potfolio
    DUOLDuolingo155.00$153.78$23,835.90$176.72$27,391.603.22%
    MUSAMurphy USA20.00$337.89$6,757.80$362.15$7,243.000.91%
    CLSCelestica1,000.00$24.48$24,480.00$26.82$26,820.003.31%
    PETQPetIQ3,000.00$21.25$63,750.00$22.38$67,125.008.61%
    NUGTGold Miners 2x ETF2,800.00$27.54$77,112.00$28.94$81,032.0010.42%
    PLTRPalantir7,000.00$17.23$120,610.00$18.16$127,120.0016.29%
    TEAMAtlassian505.00$199.75$100,873.75$204.41$103,227.0513.62%
    KTOSKratos Defense5,000.00$16.89$84,450.00$17.51$87,550.0011.41%
    QLYSQualys710.00$161.10$114,381.00$163.06$115,772.6015.45%
    CDNSCadence Design220.00248.5$54,670.00$253.50$55,770.007.38%
    OKTAOKTA, Inc500.0084.9$42,450.00$87.41$43,705.005.73%
    UECUranium Energy Corp5,000.00$5.40$27,000.00$5.24$26,200.003.65%

    Specialty Trades

    Outside of our pro portfolio, we want to show and teach you about some speciality trades. Over time we will highlight options trades, market-neutral trades, short position trades, and more.

    Today's Specialty Trade: The Market Neutral Trade

    Screen Shot 2023-11-20 at 9.49.43 AM

    Market Neutral Explained

     

    Market neutral means that you put the same amount of money on a stock or ETF that you think is going to go up during the holding period as you simultaneously short a stock or ETF that you think is going to go down. You’re betting that the long goes up and the short goes down. Money can still be made if your long drops, if it doesn’t drop as much as your short. The gain on the trade is the difference between the two bets you’ve made. In this way, you’re isolating the success of the trade to those two stocks or sectors, so the movement in the overall market really doesn’t matter to you. Market can go up or down, you don’t care. All you care about is the “spread” between your long and your short. If your long is down -5% and your short is down -15% during the same period, then you’re profit is $10% (less your carry cost on the short).

     

    In a tricky market, sometimes this method of investing allows you to achieve gains based upon your research instead of relying upon the markets general direction.

     

    In any market there will be stocks or sectors that will do well, and those that will not do well.

     

    The danger in any market neutral trade is that your long bet goes down, and your short bet goes up, in which case, you can lose even more than if you just made one bet or the other.

     

    These are trades that we might leave on for 5-10 days or 5-10 weeks or even longer if they continue to spread in our direction.

    FAZ

    3x Inverse ETF on Regional Bank

     

    Dutch's Take: With the market and indexes currently taking a hit, we see potential for an inverse ETF in the banking sector. Keep in mind this is a swing trading stock so keep an eye on our stop out limits.

    70cd7274 4f3c 4a91 a235 199ed19e3ed8
       

    CLS is our largest position. We think this going to work because xyz....

    Duolingo is a great company.

    New Position: PetIQ, Inc. operates as a pet medication and wellness company in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Services. The company offers Rx pet medications, which include flea and tick control, heartworm preventatives, arthritis, thyroid, diabetes and pain treatments, antibiotics, and other specialty medications; and develops and manufactures its own proprietary value-branded products, as well as distributes third-party branded medications. It also provides OTC medications and supplies primarily within the flea and tick control, and behavior management categories of the health and wellness industry in various forms, such as spot on (topical) treatments, chewables, oral tablets, and collars. In addition, the company offers health and wellness products that include dental treats and nutritional supplements, which comprise hip and joint, vitamins, and skin and coat products. The company provides its products primarily under the PetIQ, PetArmor, VIP Petcare, VetIQ PetCare, VetIQ, Capstar, Advecta, SENTRY, Sergeants, PetLock, Heart Shield Plus, TruProfen, Betsy Farms, PetAction, Minties, Vera, and Delightibles brands. In addition, the company offers a suite of services at community clinics and wellness centers hosted at pet retailers, including diagnostic tests, vaccinations, prescription medications, microchipping, and wellness checks. It operates through veterinarian, retail, and e-commerce channels. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.

    New Position: Uranium Energy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration, pre-extraction, extraction, and processing uranium and titanium concentrates in the United States, Canada, and Paraguay. It owns interests in the Palangana mine, Goliad, Burke Hollow, Longhorn, and Salvo projects located in Texas; Anderson, Workman Creek, and Los Cuatros projects situated in Arizona; Dalton Pass and C de Baca project located in New Mexico; Roughrider, Shea Creek, Christie Lake, Horseshoe-Raven, Hidden Bay, Diabase, West Bear, JCU, and other project located in Canada; and Yuty, Oviedo, and Alto Paraná titanium projects in Paraguay. The company was formerly known as Carlin Gold Inc. and changed its name to Uranium Energy Corp. in January 2005. Uranium Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Corpus Christi, Texas.

    Trading Day in Review

    Profits + Losses

    Sold For Profit

    Total: +22,245

    VSAT: +$22,245

    Sold For Losses

    Total: +0

    No positions sold for losses today.

    We started the day with a value of $573,000 and we ended the day at $599,756.

    Today's Trade Report

    Trading Day Summary

    We bought WOOF – Petco Health and Wellness

    We bought QCOM

    We Bought BOIL the ETF on natural gas.

    We sold off 95% of the small remaining balances in SPR and FAZ

    Finished the day down another $10,000 as the market just flat out fell off a cliff again today.

    We’re hanging on hard here, but the market neutral trades are going against us today, the defense stock AVAV fell off a cliff on no news, and we used the day to just position for the end of next week.

    • +21% for the month
    • $109,000 in gains this month
    • +145% for Year to Date
    • $363,000 in gains for the year.
    • Starting value $250,000
    • Ending value $613,000

    New Positions

    VSAT

    New Carnivore Position

    Viasat, Inc. provides broadband and communications products and services worldwide. The company’s Satellite Services segment offers satellite-based fixed broadband services, including broadband internet access and voice over internet protocol services to consumers and businesses; in-flight entertainment and aviation software services to commercial airlines and private business jets; satellite-based connectivity services; mobile broadband services, including satellite-based internet services to energy offshore vessels, cruise ships, consumer ferries, and yachts; and energy services, which include ultra-secure solutions IP connectivity, bandwidth-optimized over-the-top applications, industrial internet-of-things big data enablement, and industry-leading machine learning analytics. Its Commercial Networks segment offers fixed broadband satellite communication systems comprising satellite network infrastructure and ground terminals; mobile broadband satellite communication systems; antenna systems for terrestrial and satellite applications, such as earth imaging, remote sensing, mobile satellite communication, Ka-band earth stations, and other multi-band antennas; and space systems design and satellite networking development systems. The company’s Government Systems segment offers government mobile broadband products and services include mobile broadband modems, and terminals and network access control systems; mesh and hub-and-spoke satellite networking systems; secure networking, cybersecurity, and information assurance products; and tactical data link solutions. It designs and development of satellite and ground communications systems and network function virtualization, as well as ground-based network subsystems, as well as space system design and development products and services include architectures for GEO, MEO, LEO satellites, and other satellite platforms. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

    AM SESSION | PM SESSION

    AM Session

    OPTX turns out to be a runner and a good trading stock for the opening action.

    We hit it around $6.03 and all the way up to $6.90

    The size gets big

    We end up with 25,000 shares and we start seling a bit over $7, then some more over $8 and then more over $9 and leave 7000 shares on for the day after it breaches $10/sh

    That’s enough adrenaline for one morning.

    We buy CXM and ARCO for swing trades.

    We add to ACLX

    We buy back into ALDX and CLS

    We’re so busy with the trading that although we’re operating smoothly, its pretty intense.

    PM Session

    The afternoon is filled with pretty much watching, making sure the stops are in place properly, tracking stocks that are on the watch list for more long buy opportunities.

    The mega caps aren’t acting right, but a lot of stocks underneath are acting pretty well, so this is good.

    And biotech is on fire.

    Trader Z hits me with the facts.

    Biotech usually outperforms in a economic slowdown or recessionary environment.

    Maybe that is why they’re catching bids here.

    We see them everywhere on our screens.

    Large ones and small ones all playing now.

    We like ALDX, SONO, FBIO, ACLX, and some others that Trader Z will likely tell you about on the next conference call for all the Carnivores.

    We finish with a banger of a day.

    I don’t think we’ve had a day like this, maybe ever or since 2020.

    This is a ripping strong return here.

    And a lot of stocks made it happen, so even if we didn’t have OPTX we would have had a hell of a day, but that capped it.

    That was the blowoff valve stock.

    Just blew the cap off and we hit a geyser.

    OK!

    TRADING DONE FOR THE DAY!

    Trader Z's Thoughts

    Overview

    Stocks were up nicely today Carnivores, as stocks rallied from an oversold condition, and traders braced for jobs data, the Fed’s decision, and AAPL’s earnings. It was enough to pull the S&P 500 out of correction territory, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to 4,166.82 in its best performance since late August. The Nasdaq rose 1.16% to 12,789.48, and the DJIA was up 511.37 points, or 1.58%, to 32,928.96. The 30-stock index registered its best day since June 2. The Russell 2000 joined the party as well, rising 0.63%. We would want small caps to show more strength here, but still not happening. The rally was broad though as we had 11/11 sector in the green today. It has been a while since we have seen all 11 sectors up Carnivores.

     

    Communication services was the best-performing S&P 500 sector, up by more than 2% in its best day since late August. We did not get volume confirmation of the move today though, so we will need to see institutional buyers come in if this rally is to have any legs. Remember that after last week the S&P 500 fell into correction territory. The broader index shed 2.5% for the week to put it down by more than 10% from its 2023 closing high. It’s off 2.8% for October, on pace for its third-straight negative month which would be its first such streak since 2020 as the pandemic struck. In other words, this has been an awful month for stocks Carnivores.

     

    Now the Fed decision looms Wednesday, when the central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at the same level. With surging interest rates as the main culprit of this stock market correction, investors will be hoping the Fed signals it could be finished with its rate hiking. Traders expect the Fed to be done raising rates at least for 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 5% to start last week, but it traded around 4.89% today. Vector Nostradamus likes the idea of rates consolidating below 5% on the 10-year. Apple will report earnings Thursday after the bell. This will probably add pressure to the downside if they disappoint. The S&P 500′s largest member is in a correction itself, down 14% from its 52-week high.

     

    Finally, Friday will bring the October jobs report with investors hoping for some slowing in the labor market that will allow the Fed to feel comfortable with staying on hold the rest of the year. Vector Nostradamus remains bearish as this year’s leading index, the Nasdaq, still closed slightly below the 200-day moving average after rising above that level twice during today’s session. Until we get heavier buy volume in the stock market, stability in the bond market, and some better technical action above the 200 day moving averages, all bounces should be just considered temporary.

    Vector Notradamus

    Vector Nostradamus is bearish and now at 0/5 trend models in buy mode. VN notes all major indexes are mostly below key moving averages (with the exception of the QQQs). Breadth was decent today at 2.1 to 1 advancers to decliners. Bulls are going to have to do better than that for this to be a believable rally attempt. VN notes that bonds still haven’t convincingly bounced, so still not what we want to see in rates Carnivores. VN notes that yields must at least stabilize for there to be a meaningful rally in stocks. VN would also like to see the dollar weaken. VN continues to note that the trends in gold and bitcoin look the most intriguing out of all the major markets.

     

    VN still ranks energy, select defense names, and a few insurance names at the top but today we have a tech name. Vertiv Holdings (NYSE:VRT) looks like a promising long-term company with strong, above-average growth with an attractive valuation. Vertiv is involved in the designing, manufacturing, and servicing of critical digital infrastructure and life cycle services for data centers, communication networks, and commercial/industrial environments. This includes the powering, cooling, securing, and maintaining of the electronics that process, store and transmit data. The company aims to create technology with high reliability. Vertiv has solutions for air cooling AI-related data centers and solutions for liquid-cooling servers and racks, which a portion of the market may shift to within the AI market. Vertiv is positioned well for a hybrid solution as it has the widest selection of thermal technology available and a high level of expertise to deploy these solutions. Vertiv has over 3,500 engineers throughout the world to support AI-related infrastructure building & maintenance. The company has the ability to increase this capacity as demand increases over the next several years. The strong expected growth for the Data Infrastructure market should provide a positive tailwind for Vertiv through the decade and beyond.

     

    VRT is expected to grow revenue at a 20% rate in 2023 and follow this up with a 7% gain in 2024. EPS are expected to grow 203% in 2023 and 21% in 2024. The high expected growth for EPS in 2023 is due to a significant increase in margins. The gross margin increased from 28% in 2022 to 32% for the trailing 12 months. Operating margin increased from 4% in 2022 to 9.6% for the trailing 12 months. Net income margin increased from 1.35% in 2022 to 2.84% over the past 12 months. Things are firing on all cylinders Carnivores, so check out VRT the VN stock of the day.

    Thoughts from the Trading Desk with Dutch

    Overview

    Friday helped us put in our 4th best month from a dollar gain standpoint with now around $69,000 in gains on the $250,000 original start amount in the Model Portfolio***

    Today we tacked on a good number and now it’s become our second best month in terms of dollars gained with around $96,000

    We’re closing in on maybe being lucky enough to get this thing back to where we ended in July at $692,000 but we have a serious bit of work to do to get all the way there.

    But the Vikings here at Carnivore have a hot hand right now, so we’re on it.

    We’re about 50% of the way through October now, and its still not a perfectly kind bull market here, in fact, we might be heading down some more in the ST.

    I say in the short term – because we all want to believe that the market is going to eventually go up and give us money making opportunities that are easier, but after the last couple of years trading this market with all you Carnivores, I’ve come to realize perhaps that this is a market that doesn’t want to give us any easy money.

    I know you can feel me.

    You’ve been with us all the way here, so I know you know what I’m talking about.

    So what we’re doing is continuing to carefully watch this market for signs that it’s either firming up and going to give us a rip to the upside that we can go long into, and we’re looking for signs that it might be topping out or failing, which we saw several weeks ago with the Head and Shoulders pattern you see in the NASDAQ chart. Honestly I think we were the first guys on the Street to see that forming and bring it out to everyone. We even went on FOX Business and told Liz Claman that we were going short over that – but that we might be early. Something like that. Anyway, we were right. The H+S pattern finished itself on the right shoulder and then it fell off a cliff, gapping down, allowing us to make money on the inverse ETF’s we had. We didn’t trade it perfectly, but we MADE MONEY when the market was dropping – using those inverse ETF’s. The result was a 6% gain in September that was hard earned, and so far +19% in October.

    The S&P 500 is down almost -5% since September 1.

    We are up big since September 1.

    Over $124,000 on a start value of $475,000 September 1.

    I’ll take it.

    I’m proud of it

    We took profits on inverse ETF’s on the downswing, we rode the rip up with some quality stocks on the upswing, and NOW we have identified a failure in the indexes – which have rolled over to the downside again, took the profits on the rip up, and went to cash. And that is where we stood on Friday. Along the way, we clipped some decent gains on a tactical trade here and there like SAVA on Friday. We moved our stops up tight last week under the stocks that previously were holding up like champs, even in the face of a market that was getting clobbered…and damn it, that was the right move because some of them like DUOL just literally gave out and got clobbered. ADBE and TEAM are in that group also. Good calls for a day or two, then they collapse.

    That is BAD PRICE ACTION when a stock like ADBE runs up huge and then in 2-3 days gives ALL of it back and then some. That’s a REVERSAL that we have to pay attention to, and we did.

    So I’m pretty damn proud of our moves, our direction, our instincts, and strategies over the last several weeks.

    Remember, the passive investor is losing money.

    If you’re making money, then you’re killing it.

    Here’s an email from Friday from one of the CFL’s that we love – been with us for years.

    This pretty much says it all.

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